AS SASKATOONERS move through the first month of 2026, the question echoing across coffee shops and boardrooms is the same: “Is the bubble going to burst, or am I missing the boat?”
After a record-breaking 2025 that saw Saskatoon cement its status as the second-strongest market in Saskatchewan’s history, the 2026 landscape is defined by one word: Scarcity. While major metros like Toronto and Vancouver are grappling with “condo gluts” and price corrections, Saskatoon remains a defiant outlier.
The Numbers You Need to Know
The year-end data from December 2025 tells a compelling story. The residential benchmark price in Saskatoon sat at $417,700—a 6.4\% increase year-over-year. Even more staggering is the inventory level. We entered January 2026 with only 439 active units available. In a balanced market, you want 3 to 6 months of supply; right now, Saskatoon is starving for listings with just 2.1 months of inventory.
Why the Market Isn’t Cooling Down
As we discovered, there are three primary drivers keeping the “heat” in Saskatoon’s real estate market this year:
- The “Prairie Refuge” Effect: As coastal affordability remains out of reach, Saskatoon has become a primary destination for interprovincial migration. We added nearly 13,000 people to our population in the last year alone, and they all need a place to live.
- Stable Employment: With the BHP Jansen potash project and a surging uranium sector, Saskatoon’s “white-collar” and “blue-collar” job markets are both expanding, providing the income stability needed to support mortgage applications.
- Low Inventory High Stakes: Because we aren’t building new homes fast enough to keep up with the 4.3% population growth rate, competition for detached homes under $500,000 remains fierce.
The “Buy Now” Argument
If you are waiting for a “crash,” 2026 might be a disappointing year. Market analysts suggest that significant price drops are highly unlikely due to the persistent supply shortage.
By buying now, you:
- Lock in Equity: Even with a modest 3-4\% appreciation, a \$400,000 home could gain \$12,000 to \$16,000 in value by this time next year.
- Avoid the Spring Rush: Traditionally, February and March see a massive influx of buyers. Buying in the “quiet” of January allows for slightly more leverage in negotiations.
- Beat the Property Tax Adjustment: While the 6.7\% property tax hike is a reality, getting into a home now allows you to factor these fixed costs into your long-term budget before prices rise further.
The “Wait and See” Strategy
Waiting might be the right move if you are looking specifically at the condo market. Unlike detached homes, Saskatoon’s condo sector has seen more stability and slower growth. If your goal is a downtown apartment, you may have more room to negotiate as the year progresses and more high-density projects reach completion.
The Bottom Line
For those looking for a “forever home” or a long-term detached investment, the consensus for 2026 is clear: Don’t try to time the bottom. The “bottom” in Saskatoon happened years ago. Today, the market is about access. If you find a home that fits your budget and your family’s needs, the “best time to buy” is when you have the financing in place to secure it.
